The expected four per cent growth for 2007, though slightly lower than in previous years, is in line with UNWTO's long-term forecast growth rate of 4.1 per cent a year through 2020.
The short-term outlook remains positive, especially against the background of a strong world economy and as favourable exchange rates continue to encourage European and Asian travellers. International tourism is likely to remain buoyant unless major incidents occur, says the UNWTO.
Africa leads in growth with the expected rate for the just-ended year of 2006 standing at 10.6 per cent. Africa was also in the world's regional leader in 2005 in terms of growth. Between January and August, international tourist arrivals increased by 9.8 per cent.
Sub-Saharan Africa, with 12.6 per cent growth, leads the performance so far, driven notably by Kenya, South Africa, Mozambique, Swaziland and the Seychelles. At the same time, in North Africa, with an average growth of 5.9 per cent, the two main destinations, Morocco (9.3 per cent) and Tunisia (2.6 per cent), have experienced somewhat different growth rates.
Kenya Tourist Board chairman Jake Grieves-Cook told The EastAfrican the organisation was waiting for the final totals to be compiled for 2006 international arrivals before releasing more details. "We expect last year's figure to be over 900,000 for international arrivals by air, showing continued growth," he said.
Kenya's performance is derived from arrivals by air, on flights from outside Kenya through the two international airports, and by land through the border posts on the borders with Somalia, Ethiopia, Sudan, Uganda and Tanzania.
The total international flight arrivals in 2005 were 830,000; whole, according to the Kenya Bureau of Statistics, the total number of visitors coming in by land across the borders was 840,000, bringing the total to 1.6 million.
For 2007, KTB expects to receive close to one million arrivals by air based on current numbers, additional flights and current growth trends, and anticipates income for Kenya attributable to international tourism to exceed Ksh60 billion ($857 million).
Mr Cook attributed the improvement to the recent Tourism Marketing Recovery Plan carried out by the KTB with the backing of the Ministry of Tourism and support from the European Union (EU).
Tourist arrivals figures for 2006 are expected to jump to 1.8 million from the previous year, which recorded 1.6 million tourists, representing an over 10 per cent increase.
In 2005, the highest increase in the number of arrivals was recorded from Scandinavia, with an improvement of 57.6 per cent to stand at 24,740 tourists, while the United Kingdom, the leading source market for Kenya, brought in 153,606 tourists.
Earnings increased dramatically in the year 2004 by 65 per cent to stand at Ksh42.2 billion ($602 million) and Ksh48.9 billion ($698 million) in 2005. This figure is expected to increase to Ksh53.8 billion (768 million) for last year and Ksh60 billion ($857 million) for this year.
Mr Cook commended the closer co-operation now in place between the Ministry of Tourism, KTB and the private sector resulting in a more cohesive marketing and promotion of tourism.
Source: The East African
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